time ago I wrote an essay about what would be, among others, the future of OPEC in 20 years. My mind moved faster than time. Before discussing how OPEC will be in 20 years I would like to clarify three key aspects of its operational structure.
1. OPEC is an organization that brings only oil-exporting countries.
2. The volumes are used to set quotas or actual production is the total oil production of each country and not export.
3. Although OPEC has not formally eliminated the quota system, in practice controls are set on the actual production volumes, determined according to information from specialized sources. For example, although theoretically Venezuela has a quota of 3.2 million barrels per day (b / d) actual production, according to the OPEC, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3 million b / d and this is the figure that is included in all specialized statistics that adjusts up and down according to the market and the decisions of OPEC. Let us now
2030. The OPEC countries have joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) which was raised some years ago, a discussion of the necessary conditions so that oil could trade freely between countries. This sector was the last totally free of old patterns and protectionist market manipulators. Saudi Arabia's economic opening motorized OPEC after internal conflicts affected por 3 años su capacidad de producción, obligando al Reino a convertirse en una monarquía constitucional, con un Primer Ministro elegido popularmente. Inmediatamente en Kuwait y los Emiratos Árabes surgieron cambios políticos similares. Irak tiene un sistema democrático. Irán mantiene su régimen fundamentalista pero mucho más abierto a la modernidad.
La OPEP es miembro relevante de la Comisión Mundial para Protección Ambiental. Además se convirtió en un conglomerado industrial-financiero de influencia mundial. De un anacronismo político-económico del siglo XXI se transformó en una federación poderosa con presencia importante en las decisiones económicas del globo. Su nuevo enfoque stimulated the modernization of their societies.
In 2017, after two years of intense discussion among stakeholders, agreements were reached which, for the first time since oil was welcomed to the free market rules. The economic variable could be imposed on the policy variable mistrust. A global energy exercise "zero base", concluded that energy should buy the least expensive exporting producers and producing countries and consumers would not use artificial policies to increase prices (reducing the supply of producers) or to adversely affect the demand (Excessive taxation to consumption by the consumer countries.)
As technology, sooner or later, develop alternative energy sources more efficient than the oil, all oil producing countries and consumers together in a collective effort to help single-product to diversify their economies and participate in the development of alternative sources of energy. What was understood in 2017 that there was construction of the future, unless they are neutralized obstacles present. By 2030 this approach had been successful.
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