Groups and individuals have analyzed the transition to take place after Chavez loses the election in 2012. Benigno Alarcon has an excellent presentation on the factors that will make possible a transition from a democracy. Among them is the perceived cost benefit that will Chavez on two critical variables: tolerance and oppression. If the cost of tolerance is less than the cost of oppression, will be a peaceful transition. But if the cost of oppression is less than the tolerance will be violence. A group led by Armando Gaviria has held workshops where they discuss strengths and weaknesses of the regime and opposition used to build various electoral scenarios.
Antonio Ledezma called a meeting with representatives of society, including intellectuals and university professors. The theme was the transition. There were questions, situational analysis and recommendations. In the treaty there several conclusions thick: 1. Will not, under any scenario, a smooth transition. 2. It would be a great mistake to try to republish the past, it serves to learn from him but not to play (Ledezma, dixit) 3. National institutions are mostly destroyed or corrupted, and your recovery will take time, unity of purpose and money. 4. The opposition must have a minimum plan of government before the elections. 5. You have to use a language and find themes that reach the areas E and D. 6. There is a real danger that Chavez, if he loses the election, refuse to hand over the presidency. Concerned about the militarization of society. Militias. The subordination of the armed forces to one man. All this points to a scenario of electoral ignorance by force. Several of those present stressed the need to prepare to respond with courage and determination to this scenario. 7. Important task of the transition will be reconciliation. A student recommended Chavez to show the people there will be no retaliation. "Do not let them." This does not mean that they are not required to answer for their actions to those who have violated the law. Responsibilities must be established, otherwise it will be difficult to establish rules that discourage the repetition of such abuses in the future. But responsibly and without vindictiveness.
As for the sector were discussed: Oil and the need to restructure its industry, to create an intermediary body between the ministry (the political) and businesses (the operative) and stating that citizens are the owners of the subsoil. Economy: remove controls after regaining the trust and establish a market economy. The Armed Forces: return to their barracks and subordination to civilian authority. Special emphasis on education, health, social security and personal safety. Job creation for poverty reduction. Re-professionalisation of Foreign Service. Revision of treaties and agreements signed by the scheme (the presidential candidate must be known internationally). Rescue Guyana companies giving its employees stake. The candidate will create a commission to review the values \u200b\u200bof our society to strengthen positive behavior and ignore what harms us spiritually.
Ledezma was very clear and I think in a presidential term can be reversed 13 years of disaster. Good luck. All we will need.
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